Elon Musk lately revived the “51 % renewables” benchmark, stating that the vitality backing Bitcoin “can’t be faked.”
The reference is to his earlier promise that Tesla would resume accepting Bitcoin funds as soon as at the least half of mining vitality got here from clear or low-carbon sources.
Nevertheless, now that the newest knowledge suggests the community might have crossed that threshold, Tesla nonetheless hasn’t re-enabled BTC checkout. Why?
Has Bitcoin handed the bar but?
In response to the Cambridge Centre for Different Finance’s 2025 Digital Mining Trade Report, sustainable vitality now powers roughly 52.4 % of surveyed Bitcoin mining exercise.
Of that, 42.6 % is from renewables (hydro, wind, photo voltaic, and many others.) and 9.8 % from nuclear or different low-carbon sources. In parallel, fossil gasoline contributions have shifted: pure gasoline now accounts for 38.2 % (up from ~25 % in 2022), and coal has fallen to eight.9 % (down from ~36.6 %).
If Musk’s promise is taken actually, Bitcoin might already exceed the 51 % “sustainable vitality” bar, at the least as measured by Cambridge’s survey of corporations that cowl roughly 48 % of world mining capability.
However that is solely half the story. The wording issues: Musk has referenced renewables (50 %) in earlier feedback, although in later tweets he says “51 % renewable” or “vitality you’ll be able to’t pretend.” The Cambridge determine lumps renewables + nuclear; the pure renewables share is decrease (42.6 %).
So, BTC should still fall brief relying on the rigidity of Musk’s definition.
Furthermore, the Cambridge strategy is survey-based and covers solely a subset of miners. Off-grid operations, curtailed renewables, regional idiosyncrasies, and temporal mismatches (when renewables produce kind of relative to mining demand) complicate the image.
Alternate fashions, equivalent to these primarily based on grid carbon depth or vitality tracing, typically yield extra conservative estimates of renewable share. That divergence means even a nominal “move” is topic to debate.
So why hasn’t Tesla flipped the change?
Even granting that Bitcoin might now qualify beneath Musk’s sustainability take a look at, Tesla has not re-enabled BTC funds. A number of pragmatic and symbolic hurdles stay.
The primary is due diligence. Musk beforehand acknowledged that Tesla would solely restart funds as soon as he noticed “affordable (~50 %) clear vitality utilization … and a pattern towards rising that quantity.” That wording implies he’s on the lookout for persistence, not a one-off knowledge level.
A single report exhibiting 52 % sustainable vitality might not fulfill his requirement for a verified and sustained upward pattern in Bitcoin’s vitality combine.
One other issue is definition readability. Tesla would want to determine whether or not “sustainable” contains nuclear and low-carbon sources or strictly renewables like hydro, wind, and photo voltaic. The Cambridge knowledge combines these classes, however Musk’s earlier phrasing referenced renewables particularly.
With out a universally accepted definition, any resolution to renew BTC funds dangers being accused of greenwashing.
There’s additionally the problem of service provider and market threat. Accepting Bitcoin exposes Tesla to cost volatility, advanced accounting therapy, and potential regulatory problems.
Even when the corporate instantly converts BTC receipts to fiat, fluctuations between order placement and settlement introduce monetary uncertainty that will not be definitely worth the effort for a automobile producer working on skinny margins.
Model optics add one other layer. Tesla’s picture is constructed on environmental credibility, and even a minor backslide in Bitcoin’s vitality profile may set off backlash from buyers and ESG-minded clients. The corporate might desire to err on the facet of warning fairly than face renewed criticism if mining exercise shifts again towards fossil-heavy areas.
Lastly, operational integration can’t be ignored. To convey Bitcoin funds again on-line, Tesla would want to rebuild pockets infrastructure, transaction pipelines, and conversion mechanisms. That requires engineering sources and inside approvals: steps which might be removed from trivial for a worldwide producer already balancing a number of product launches and software program initiatives.
Taken collectively, these components counsel that clearing the 51 % renewable threshold just isn’t sufficient by itself. For Musk, the take a look at appears to be as a lot about confidence, consistency, and notion as about uncooked knowledge. Till these align, Tesla’s checkout web page is more likely to keep crypto-free.
What this implies for adoption
From a story standpoint, Musk’s reengagement wields affect. If Bitcoin can credibly cleave to a cleaner vitality combine and main industrial counterparts like Tesla start transacting once more, it could reinforce a extra sustainable narrative for crypto.
But Tesla’s continued off-chain standing regardless of claims suggests Musk views the promise as conditional, not computerized. The take a look at is as a lot about optics, threat management, and narrative as it’s about easy metrics.
For now, Bitcoin’s claimed “51 %+ sustainable” standing provides a compelling rebuttal to critics, however till checkouts return, it stays extra of a symbolic win than a industrial one.
