Elon Musk is elevating new questions on Bitcoin’s long-term security within the face of speedy advances in quantum computing. The Tesla and SpaceX CEO turned to his AI chatbot, Grok, to learn how seemingly it’s that Bitcoin’s SHA-256 hashing algorithm might be cracked by {powerful} quantum machines.
His query got here simply as IBM revealed main plans for its next-generation quantum system referred to as Blue Jay, which is anticipated to achieve 2,000 international qubits by 2033.
Grok Predicts Low Danger, At Least For Now
In accordance with Grok, the danger of Bitcoin’s encryption getting cracked by quantum computer systems may be very low over the subsequent 5 years. The AI estimates the prospect stays near zero throughout that interval.
However when looking to 2035, the likelihood goes up barely—although it nonetheless stays underneath 10%. These numbers are based mostly on knowledgeable assessments and present quantum capabilities.
Primarily based on 2025 assessments from NIST, IBM, and knowledgeable surveys, the likelihood of quantum computing cracking SHA-256 (through Grover’s algorithm, decreasing preimage search to ~2^128 operations) is close to 0% within the subsequent 5 years and
— Grok (@grok) August 2, 2025
Musk’s considerations should not popping out of nowhere. Firms like Google and Microsoft are growing their very own quantum platforms—Willow and Majorana 1—which have sparked debate over whether or not cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin may at some point be susceptible to assaults from these ultra-powerful methods.
Proper now, most quantum methods solely have round 1,000 qubits. That’s far under the tens of millions of error-corrected qubits scientists consider are essential to interrupt Bitcoin’s cryptographic defenses.
Grok added that stronger algorithms like SHA-3 or SHA-512 might be used as replacements if wanted sooner or later.
Quantum Computer systems Vs. Blockchain
In the meantime, in keeping with a latest evaluation by international auditing agency Deloitte, quantum computer systems may quickly threaten the safety of the Bitcoin blockchain, with round 25% of Bitcoins at the moment prone to being stolen by way of quantum assaults.
Ultimately, quantum computer systems would possibly grow to be {powerful} sufficient to interrupt your entire transaction course of, the analysts stated. To stop this, the Bitcoin community would want to undertake post-quantum cryptography—an rising however advanced answer at the moment being explored by cryptographers worldwide.
Picture: The Quantum Insider
IBM’s Blue Jay Provides Stress
IBM’s new system, Blue Jay, can have greater than a billion gate operations—one thing a lot past the capabilities of at present’s computer systems.
It’s a part of the corporate’s bigger effort to be on the forefront of quantum computing by the early 2030s. With different trade giants reminiscent of Google and Microsoft not far behind, the competitors is heating up.
Tesla And SpaceX Each Maintain Bitcoin
Musk’s curiosity isn’t simply tutorial. Tesla at the moment owns 11,500 Bitcoins, price about $1.3 billion at present costs. SpaceX additionally holds a large quantity, reportedly round $850 million price of BTC. Musk himself has confirmed that he holds Bitcoin in his private portfolio.
With the extent of these holdings, it’s no marvel that Musk want to get forward of potential threats. His tweet is seemingly relaxed, but it surely signifies elevated consciousness within the tech world about how quantum advances would possibly have an effect on the world of crypto and finance.
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