The likelihood that Bitcoin (BTC) will fall under $100,000 earlier than the beginning of 2026 has surged on crypto prediction platform Polymarket, reflecting rising bearish sentiment after a turbulent week for digital belongings.
The market, which poses the query“Will Bitcoin dip under $100k earlier than 2026?”, has seen odds spike from 47% on September 25 to 60% on the time of publication.
Earlier this week, when Bitcoin traded above $117,000, the identical contract carried only a 44% likelihood, with confidence eroding simply as rapidly as value momentum fades.
BTC value evaluation
Bitcoin now trades at $108,950, down greater than 2% on the day and over 6% on the week. A crimson week in a transfer displays broader weak spot throughout the crypto market, which has suffered practically $150 billion in market cap losses within the final 24 hours amid a wave of liquidations and risk-off flows.
Polymarket information exhibits that the entire betting quantity on the December 31, 2025, contract has climbed to $1.39 million, suggesting a surge of curiosity in hedging or speculating on the potential for a deeper correction.
Whereas prediction markets are usually not definitive forecasts, they supply a helpful gauge of investor psychology. The rising odds level to mounting considerations that Bitcoin could battle to carry help ranges as macro pressures construct and liquidity tightens.
Nonetheless, with three months left in 2025, the market stays divided, and sharp reversals in sentiment have been a trademark of the Bitcoin cycle particularly in ‘Uptober.’
