Bettors on the Polygon-based prediction market Polymarket are assigning a 96.3% likelihood that the Federal Reserve leaves rates of interest unchanged at its July 29–30 assembly, in keeping with the platform’s contract masking the choice.
On high of the proportion of bets on “no change,” the platform’s dashboard reveals 3% betting on a 25‑foundation‑level minimize, and fewer than 1% betting on both a bigger minimize or a hike.
The backdrop
The bets come amid an unusually public dispute between President Donald Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump has argued that the Fed ought to have began reducing charges. Throughout a July 24 go to to the Fed’s renovation website, he reiterated his stance and advocated for sharp reductions.
In the meantime, Powell has continued to say that coverage will stay>additionally suggest restricted odds of instant upheaval.
The Polymarket odds on whether or not Powell will likely be out as chair by July 31 are buying and selling round 1%, the August 31 model is close to 5%, and an extended‑dated market places the likelihood of his departure by year-end 2025 at about 17%.
Collectively, the Polymarket contracts recommend that members count on no coverage change subsequent week and don’t anticipate an imminent shake-up in Fed management, even because the medium-term likelihood of Powell’s exit has edged larger by year-end.
For now, prediction markets align with most public Fed steerage, which is to carry regular, assess the information, and keep away from pre‑committing to cuts.
