Coinbase (COIN) will report second-quarter earnings after Thursday’s market shut and expectations are diverging sharply on Wall Avenue as analysts weigh falling buying and selling volumes in opposition to a wave of regulatory developments and product rollouts.
FactSet consensus estimates peg the corporate’s income at $1.59 billion within the second quarter, up from $1.45 billion in the identical interval final 12 months. Earnings per share are anticipated to return in at $1.25. Beneath the floor of these topline numbers, nevertheless, lies a debate over what issues extra proper now: declining crypto spot volumes or Coinbase’s rising subscription and companies (S&S) enterprise, fueled by larger curiosity earnings and blockchain exercise.
Barclays analyst Benjamin Buddish — who has a impartial score on COIN — is bracing for disappointment. Buddish warned that retail buying and selling exercise fell sharply and estimates Coinbase’s transaction income at round $741 million — beneath FactSet’s forecast of $813.8 million. He cited a 43% quarter-over-quarter drop in retail volumes primarily based on knowledge from Robinhood and app utilization, together with softening throughout centralized exchanges.
“For Q2, we consider the correlation derived from Robinhood buying and selling metrics is a greater read-through for Coinbase Q2 retail buying and selling revenues. Robinhood’s retail crypto volumes have been down meaningfully q/q,” Buddish wrote.
Regardless of this, Buddish not too long ago raised his worth goal to $359 from $202, reflecting an elevated earnings a number of amid a broader market re-rating, to not point out the inventory’s greater than doubling from the April lows to the present $380. He’s conserving his impartial score as he believes short-term headwinds are balanced by optimism round pending crypto laws just like the GENIUS and CLARITY Acts.
Citi analyst Peter Christiansen is extra upbeat. He not too long ago lifted his worth goal to $505 from $270 and reaffirmed a purchase score. Christiansen pointed to Coinbase’s inclusion within the S&P 500, the signing of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, and progress on the CLARITY Act, which goals to create a framework for distinguishing digital commodities from securities.
“Traders are starting to position a premium on blockchain improvements relevant for real-world actions,” Christiansen wrote, highlighting Coinbase’s plans for tokenized equities and new cost instruments. Whereas he acknowledged decrease Q2 volumes, he sees long-term upside from elevated monetization of USDC, Base community utilization, and future development in Coinbase One subscriptions.
JPMorgan’s Kenneth Worthington took a extra reserved place, sustaining a impartial score and a $404 worth goal for year-end 2025. His valuation contains Coinbase’s share of Circle’s stablecoin enterprise, price an estimated $1.4 billion, which he stripped out of adjusted EBITDA. He additionally factored in $50 million in prices tied to a cybersecurity breach earlier this 12 months.
Worthington believes Coinbase stays a “beneficiary of the cryptocurrency economic system” and says that “we beforehand underestimated the energy of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETPs in its early days as a key catalyst for the crypto business.” Nonetheless, he cautions that its long-term success will hinge on product improvement, particularly in tokenization and funds. He sees potential upside if ETF inflows and legislative readability proceed, however warns that Coinbase might underperform if enthusiasm round crypto retreats or if new guidelines impose larger compliance prices.
Within the background of those debates is the efficiency of Coinbase’s S&S enterprise, which administration had guided to generate between $600 million and $680 million for the quarter. Barclays expects the determine to prime steering at $703 million, pushed by larger USDC balances and elevated BTC costs throughout Q2. Christiansen at Citi sees slower development in staking but in addition expects new options, equivalent to a refreshed pockets and the launch of a crypto-powered bank card on the Amex community, to help S&S development over time.
Coinbase’s core problem is that whereas crypto costs have rebounded in 2025, buying and selling volumes haven’t stored tempo. Based on The Block, Coinbase processed $232 billion in spot quantity throughout Q2, down roughly 40% quarter-over-quarter. Futures buying and selling was stronger, however nonetheless confirmed indicators of tapering by June.
Coinbase inventory is at present buying and selling at $380, up about 2% on Wednesday and 47% year-to-date.
